Archives For iPad

In the Gizmodo article The iPad will rule the world Jesus Diaz points to the Alan Kay quote regarding the iPad. While the size is one of the key factors to this prediction so is the fact that Kay envisioned a universally accessible wireless connected device–when you combine the size with the access the iPad may just be the start to a whole new future.

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William Gibson, the science fiction author who coined the term cyberspace and is credited with influencing cyberculture offered the following prediction about computers back in 1993:

In the future, computers will mutate beyond recognition. Computers won’t be intimidating, wire-festooned, high-rise bit-factories swallowing your entire desk. They will tuck under your arm, into your valise, into your kid’s backpack. After that, they’ll fit onto your face, plug into your ear. And after that – they’ll simply melt. They’ll become fabric. What does a computer really need? Not glass boxes – it needs thread – power wiring, glass fiber-optic, cellular antennas, microcircuitry. These are woven things. Fabric and air and electrons and light. Magic handkerchiefs with instant global access. You’ll wear them around your neck. You’ll make tents from them if you want. They will be everywhere, throwaway. Like denim. Like paper. Like a child’s kite. This is coming a lot faster than anyone realizes. Gibson, 1993)

Since 1993 we have seen computer size shrink drastically as computing power has increased signficantly. For example the iPhone of today is many times more powerful than the computers of 1993 and it is something that we can slip into our pockets. We are also seeing computing woven into all aspects of our physical and social spaces and it is truly happening much faster than anyone realizes, so Gibson’s predictions are relatively accurate.

Gibson is also very accurate in his prediction regarding the Internet and its rapid growth:

Every machine you see here will be trucked out and buried in a landfill, and never spoken of again, within a dozen years … The values are what matters. The values are the only things that last, the only things that *can* last. Hack the hardware, not the Constitution. Hold on tight to what matters, and just hack the rest. I used to think that cyberspace was 50 years away. What I thought was 50 years away, was only 10 years away. And what I thought was 10 years away – it was already here. I just wasn’t aware of it yet. (Gibson, 1993)

Gibson’s recommendation to focus on values and not the technology are words that should be headed. Focusing on what we use technology to do to improve our lives, education and society in general should be the priority.

I have started down this path of reflection to help me focus on what is really valuable in the release of the iPad. It is also a response to the countless articles and blog posts that I have read in the past few days predicting the demise of the the Kindle and other ereaders to the grandiose headline in the UK Telegraph Is Apple using the iPad to take over the world? An example of the incorrect focus on the technology rather than what it can do to improve our society is highlighted in the following quote from the article:

As Richard Holway, of analysts TechMarketView, says: “Get on any train in five years’ time, and people will be reading the newspaper (downloaded at home or automatically when they walk through Waterloo Station on the way home), books, watching TV, playing games (quite possibly with fellow passengers!) or whatever on their iPads.”

In five years we should have a very different and much more powerful device than the iPad and while there is a good chance it will be an Apple device there are no guarantees. While I am certain that this new device will enable the user to read any content or amuse themselves individually or socially while traveling this perspective limits the potential of technology to improve our lives. We owe it ourselves to look and think beyond limited consumptive desires.

Jason Hiner the Editor in Chief of TechRepublic offered this quick poll to the readers of his Tech Sanity blog and while I am not surprised by the results I am surprised at how limited the choice are for innovative technologies. If you really look at the rest of the list you will see that the iPad is really the only technology on the list that could even be described as a disruptive innovation. The other smart phones on the list are simply copies of the iPhone and one could argue these phones don’t even qualify as examples of sustaining innovation because they only provide additional choice in this market space. Furthermore, at a response rate of 2% the Windows 7 phone is clearly not even in the race. Similarly the Google Chrome Notebook should not be considered innovative because it is simply a laptop running a Linux based OS. Other than coming from Google there is nothing innovative there at all.

I also have to agree with Hiner on his caveat in choosing the iPad as the most innovative technology of 2010. I know from reading Hiner’s blog post The truth about iPad: It’s only good for two things and other articles that he is a skeptical supporter of the iPad. It is a 1.0 technology and he argues that it is really only good for two things: reading and viewing and multitouch interaction. I use the iPad daily and wouldn’t want to work without one but it is a very immature technology. It does hold enormous promise and most importantly as a truly disruptive technology it has, as Hiner aptly states:

revealed how tablets can replace netbooks and laptops for light computing while also serving as e-readers and media players.

Disruptive innovations do come into the market place at a 1.0 level and often are not as powerful and feature rich as the mature technologies that they replace but the key fact is that they do change people attitudes and actions. It is clear that the iPad does this. It will be interesting to see how 2011 shapes up with the release of the upgraded iPad and hopefully more competition from the imitators. As these technologies mature and competition increases we should continue to see the impact of this latest example of disruptive innovation.